| Best Picture Will win: "The Departed" Should win: "The Departed" What a fine selection of nominees does this year bring. From genre pictures, to respectful antiwar statements, a sociopolitically conscious comedy and even this year's obligatory biopic nominee turns out to be something of a stylized comedy of manners... then of course there's the one that feels important. Which is why the consensus right now screams "Babel" for Best Picture, the Golden Globe it won in this category is its major accomplishment, but it has been denied in absolutely every other award and it should, because not only is it a mediocre movie, but also one whose only achievement is tricking one into believing its self righteous discourse. This sounds like the kind of film the Academy rewards of course, last year was the clearest example, but with Martin Scorsese returning to the kind of films they've denied him the big award for in the past and proving he's still the master of it, there's no way they play blind again. "Little Miss Sunshine" could spoil, but its lack of director nomination makes a loud statement, Clint Eastwood just won a few years ago (and "Letters from Iwo Jima" has the subtitles going against it, only English spoken films have won this award) and "The Queen", although majestic, feels common, compared to the rest, to be Best Picture worthy. |
| Best Actor Will win: Forest Whitaker "The Last King of Scotland" Should win: Forest Whitaker "The Last King of Scotland" Playing Ugandan dictator Idi Amin, Whitaker gives one of the most surprisingly gratifying performances of the year. He's funny, intimidating and absolutely hypnotic! The only one who could spoil this is Peter O'Toole who has always expressed how much he wants to win a competitive Oscar; playing what some could say is a version of himself in "Venus" the sly actor goes straight for the heart and practically tells the Academy this might be their last chance to get it right with him. |
| Best Actress Will win: Helen Mirren "The Queen" Should win: Penélope Cruz "Volver" The selection of nominees is exquisite and Meryl Streep, Judi Dench and Kate Winslet should bow down to Mirren who has already won every single accolade, in every single award show for her role as Elizabeth II, and going for her is the fact that she gives one hell of a performance! She is absolutely brilliant and this award would be quite well earned, the only thing that could upset is the Academy wanting to spread the wealth. If that was the case, they should go for Cruz, who as a sensual/over protective/potty mouthed/secretive/earthy woman in "Volver" not only gives the breakthrough performance of 2006 (erasing from our memories every single bad film she's made in the past) she also seems possessed by the spirits of legends who've won this award in the past in whose company Cruz should feel absolutely worthy. |
| Best Supporting Actor Will win: Eddie Murphy "Dreamgirls" Should win: Mark Wahlberg "The Departed" Murphy "came back from the dead" to prove that he acts and does it quite well. His award here might be seen as pardon for every film crime he's done in the last few years, which sadly makes it quite hard for the other nominees to even think of coming near the Oscar. Alan Arkin could upset for his legendary status more than for his hilarious turn as a drug addict grandfather in "Little Miss Sunshine". |
| Best Supporting Actress Will win: Jennifer Hudson "Dreamgirls" Should win: Jennifer Hudson "Dreamgirls" And I am telling you, Hudson practically has this in the bag. She proved herself in a film in which she's surrounded by established celebrities and still, she takes hold of "Dreamgirls" in a way nobody else even comes near to...and this is only her film debut! The cute, and worthy, Abigail Breslin from "Little Miss Sunshine" seems to be the only one who can "Deena Jones" Effie's walk to that podium. |
| Best Original Screenplay Will win: Michael Arndt "Little Miss Sunshine" Should win: Arndt/Peter Morgan "The Queen" This award could as well be known as "Only award we hand out to quirky indies that will then lose Best Picture" (see "Sideways", "Pulp Fiction", "Lost in Translation") which is why this is "Sunshine"'s best shot at getting Oscar recognition. Other than that Morgan should get it, not only for "The Queen" but for his double whammy of bringing notorious political figures to vibrant cinematic life, which he also does in "The Last King of Scotland". |
| Will win: William Monaghan "The Departed" Should win: William Monaghan "The Departed" All the layers that he slowly removes from every character in "The Departed" and the way in which he ambiguously sets them in a universe where right and wrong are exclusively in the eye of the beholder, should earn Monaghan this award. Also notable are the adaptations of "Children of Men" and "Little Children" and of course the genius Sacha Baron Cohen who brings "Borat" to the screen with a life that goes beyond what TV characters are allowed to live. |